Week 10 Card

Roll Dawgs.

Fam, it’s that time of the week. Before we get to my card, I want to say thank you to all the loyal subscribers who have made writing GBCF so enjoyable for me over the past month. I started this Substack as a means for indulging my creative juices and talking about a topic I am passionate about. I have been emboldened by the response from the loyal few of you who have spent the time reading my musings and enjoying my content. I love the comments, the feedback, and the passion - please keep it coming! Now, to Week 10.

We’ve got a mighty good slate this weekend and it starts Friday night with three of my favorite teams playing important conference matchups. Let’s hit two of those games (sorry Indiana, you guys STINK) and then discuss my 13 (!!!) plays for Saturday.

Friday Night

BC +3 at Syracuse: The Path takes us to the Carrier Dome (I will always call it that) in upstate New York this evening. I can’t bet this one, but if you can, you should. The Eagles outmatch Syracuse on both the offensive and defensive lines, and I expect this advantage will lead them to a victory away from home. Syracuse does have some pop with a mobile quarterback who may give BC’s inadequate linebackers fits - but the Orange struggle to finish drives and throw the ball. I love the Eags in this spot, and I love the idea of walking down The Path another week. Shoutout to BC Twitter for the fire memes this week regarding The Path.

Colorado State at Wyoming UNDER 42.5: Look, I don’t bet unders often, but the fact is IT’S GONNA BE WINDY IN LARAMIE. ~20mph winds at kickoffs, plus the fact that you have a struggling offense in Colorado State coming to town. Let’s ride the under and enjoy a bounce back performance from the Cowboys.

Saturday

Nebraska -3 at Michigan State: I’ve ridden the corn huskers for a few weeks now and I like them again Saturday. They have found their rhythm offensively with the change at QB and continue to play very stout defense. Michigan State has completely given up on the season in my eyes and I think Nebraska’s talent level/motivation will be too much for them Saturday. Corn Fed Boys gunna eat.

Ohio State at Rutgers OVER 42.5: The under is the trendy pick in this one and I can see why: the game is a noon kick, both of these teams have strong defenses, and both of them play at a relatively slow tempo. So why is Mucc taking the over? As the great Warren Buffet says, “be greedy when others are fearful.” This is one of the lowest totals in the last 5 years for Ohio State and I think that they are due for some mean reversion offensively. They have star running back TreVeyon Henderson back which should help and of course have the incredibly dynamic Marvin Harrison Jr on the outside. I expect Ohio State to score in the 30s here, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Rutgers gives us 7-13 points.

Texas -4 vs. Kansas State: This pick pains me because I love Chris Kleiman and Kansas State, but I think the price is too low here. Texas saw what happened to OU last week and will be on high alert for this one. Malik Murphy gets another week at QB1 to improve after his performance last week and I think his running ability might just help Texas solve some of their red zone woes. Ultimately, Texas’s defense is the key here as they will need to stop the KSU rushing attack to cover this number. I like their chances to do so and I like Texas to win by a TD or more.

Clemson +3 vs. Notre Dame: BRING YA OWN GUTS FELLAS!! Clemson has been downright putrid this year, but they’ve also suffered from a weird combination of bad luck and poor timing. The Tigers are actually a much better team than their record suggests, but have lost a lot of games because of bad turnover luck and bad plays from their QB in big moments. I think this is a rally the troops type of game for Dabo and the boys. As long as the Tigers are still bought in, I think they matchup athletically with the French School from the West enough to cover as home dogs. Plus, Dabo will have extra motivation after receiving that crazy call from Tyler from Spartanburg earlier in the week.

Navy -6.5 at Temple: One of my most loyal subscribers, Brad “Habibi” Klustner will be in attendance for this one. Did Brad go to Navy or Temple? No. Does Brad care about either program? No. Brad lives in Philly and the guy just loves Ball. You know what else Brad loves? Smash mouth, 2-gap, 23 personnel football. For those reasons Navy is the play here. Temple’s hapless defense and negative home field advantage will be no match for the Mids who sneaky have a shot at a bowl game.

The most beautiful formation in football.

Georgia Tech ML +110 at Virginia: Virginia is favored in a football game? Yeah, that’s an auto bet-against in my opinion. Virginia has played a lot better as of late, but so has Georgia Tech. GT’s offense can move the rock and they have a superior athletic advantage in this one. Tony Elliot is definitely moving the ‘Hoos in the right direction, but they shouldn’t be favored in this one.

Air Force -18 vs. Army: My #10 team in the country will try to lock up the Commander-in-Chiefs trophy this weekend when they host Army. I’ve been preaching the Gospel of Air Force all season, and I will ride with them again this Saturday. Army is really weak along the defensive line and has not figured out their new shotgun option offense. Air Force is a well-oiled-machine offensively and they have one of the nation’s leading defense. I could see Air Force winning this one 21-0 or 28-3.

Oklahoma at OK State OVER 61.5: I contemplated taking OK State here but that felt a little bit like a suckers bet. I then contemplated OU in a bounce back spot at -6. Where I landed was the over. Yes, the number is high, but these team’s love explosive plays and they both tackle pretty poorly. Let’s ride with some bedlam in the final edition of Bedlam and enjoy this one.

Georgia -15 vs. Missouri: Not a ton to say on this one as I previewed it in my Big Game Breakdown. Outside of 1-2 individual matchups, Georgia is much much stronger than Mizzou. At home in the prime 3:30 CBS slot, I expect Georgia to take it to the Tigers and bring Mizzou back down to earth.

Virginia Tech at Louisville OVER 48.5: The Path will need Va Tech to win this one so I will have eyes on this game regardless, but even if I wasn’t watching I like this over. Both of these teams play up-tempo, and Louisville can really hit big plays. I know their defense is strong, but they’ve struggled a bit against mobile quarterbacks which Virginia Tech has. I expected to see this number in the low 50s, so I’ll take the 48.5.

More Path Memes PLEASE

Kentucky -4.5 at Mississippi State: We just missed on a Kentucky cover last week vs. Tennessee, but the Wildcats actually played pretty well. Mississippi State is a dead team walking and they have no identity to lean on. Kentucky gets right with this one by inflicting some pain on the fans in Starkville.

Mucc’s Mountain West ML of the Week: Boise State +125 at Fresno State. These MLs have been struggling lately, but that’s to be expected. This week I am going The Valley and taking the Broncos of Boise State. No matter what people tell you, Boise is still the cream of the crop of the MWC. They’ve owned this league for a long time both from a performance and recruiting stand point. The rivalry against Fresno has been incredibly fun to watch and I expect this will be another classic game. Boise figured some stuff out recently and coming off a dominant performance against Wyoming they control their own destiny in terms of making it to the conference title game. Fresno likes to go up tempo and throw the ball, and they have a decent enough defense. The key here is whether Boise can establish the run. They did so against an equally as tough, if not tougher, Wyoming defense last week. Fresno has given up 24+ points in three straight games and their defense has been trending down. Give me the Broncs BABY.

Lock of the Week: The University of Washington -3 vs The University of Southern California. A mentor of mine once called me an “emotional” bettor. He was right. But just because you make some picks based on feel and vibes, doesn’t mean you’re wrong. The Vibes for this one are being totally misconstrued by the masses, IMO. Merely 3 weeks ago the country was screaming “Washington is a Wagon” from the mountaintops, and after two lack luster performances they are all of a sudden a team folks are shying away from. I won’t shy away. I will not be dettered. Will USC score on this Washington defense? Absolutely. Does that even matter? No. Washington is just as explosive as USC, they are much tougher on both lines of scrimmage, and they have WAY more to play for than the Trojans. Think of it this way: if the winner of this game came down to which defense could get a single stop, would you take Washington’s defense or USC’s? Also, think about this if this line was made after the Oregon/ND games it would’ve been Washington -10. Somehow, USC’s 1 point win over dreadful Cal and Washington’s two WINS have made this a field goal game. I don’t get it? USC’s homefield advantage is suspect so it can’t be that. I know a lot of Huskies will be in the Coliseum come Saturday. The other thing I know is that UW QB Michael Penix has never let me down:

Penix is a Golden God

I’m riding with the DAWGS. I think the 70-49 prediction from commenter Brady C is pretty accurate, so I’ll probably take the over as well. But first and foremost, I expect the Huskies will roll over the Hollywood Trojans and get back on track. Once that happens, the folks in the U District and up and down 17th Street will start to say a little louder: “Feels Like ‘91.”

Let’s have a weekend fam!

Love and Overs,

Mucc