Week 10 Card & Preview
Let's stay hot...
When the schedule first dropped, Week 10 looked like one of the crown jewels of the season. But with several teams unexpectedly tumbling out of the rankings and falling from contention, it’s shaping up to be a pretty average slate—at least compared to the fireworks we’ve got coming down the stretch over the last three weeks of the season.
But like we saw earlier this season, it’s these sleepy weeks that can sneak up on you. May we see a couple of unexpected upsets that blow up the playoff picture? Could we see some conference title races blown wide open? Will chaos reign supreme? I don’t know, but what I do know is I am going to try to give you some winners and break it all down. And listen, I’ve been hot — as I write this I just witnessed both the Rice/Memphis Over and UNC/Syracuse under hit…a 2-0 start to the week ain’t bad.
Let’s jump in to the rest of the Card.
Week Ten Card
Season Record: 47-40-2 (+1.9u)
Film Room Brad: 7-2
Penn State Team Total UNDER 12.5 points at #1 Ohio State (2U): This was supposed to be one of the marquee matchups of the Week 10 slate but as we enter November, Penn State is without a quarterback or a coach, and Ohio State looks absolutely unstoppable. The Buckeyes are steamrolling through the Big Ten, and I’ve been raving for weeks about this defense. Time to back it up with a bet. Ohio State has allowed double-digit points just once all season (at Illinois) and boasts one of the nation’s top rush defenses. I don’t see many scenarios where this version of Penn State can move the ball effectively or generate any explosive plays. Remember, last year’s matchup in Happy Valley saw the Nittany Lions manage just 13 points and seven of those came on a pick-six. It’s not the flashiest play, but I’ll take the rare team total under here in the Shoe.
#20 Texas -3 vs. #9 Vanderbilt (1U): Every instinct in my body says to keep riding the ’Dores, but my wife, who is frighteningly accurate with her vibes picks, declared tonight that Texas is the play. She hit two four-leg parlays this week, and bought AMD at $100/share last year, so who am I to question her? As for the game itself, Arch Manning is healthy and gets the start, and it feels like he/Texas finally figured something out on offense: get the ball to Ryan Wingo. Vandy’s strength on offense is up front, but Texas has the defensive line to neutralize it and we saw them struggle a bit with Mizzou’s talented defensive line last week. My head says Vanderbilt, the line smells like a trap, and my wife can smell cheese from a mile away. I’m following her lead and backing the Horns for a statement win and another dose of SEC chaos.
#10 Miami -10.5 at SMU (2U): I’ve bet Miami a few times this year with mixed results, but I like this matchup for them. SMU came into the season hoping to build on last year’s playoff run, but behind a rebuilt offensive line they’ve looked less balanced and less explosive. Additionally, quarterback Kevin Jennings has been under constant pressure and keeps turning the ball over at an alarming rate that has cost them some games against inferior teams like last week against Wake Forest. Miami, on the other hand, tends to shine when they have a physical edge, and their defense should absolutely bully this SMU front. We saw in the second half against Stanford what happens when the ‘Canes start rolling downhill and get Mark Fletcher going and give Carson Beck some time to through. I think they pull away again here. Lay the points with the ‘Canes.
Mucc’s Lock of the Week - Navy +7 at North Texas (3U): The game of the year in the American, and the Mids are getting a full touchdown? I can’t believe it. No one has pumped North Texas’ tires more than me (and Brad), but they shouldn’t be favored by this much. The Mean Green rank 75th nationally against the run, and Navy can slice you apart on the ground in a dozen different ways with their dynamic option offense. And when they’ve got you cheating in the box, they can hit big plays in the pass game over the top. I think they’ll rip off multiple big plays and score at will on this Mean Green defense. Sure, Navy’s defense isn’t great, and we’ve talked plenty about how good Drew Mestemaker and this North Texas offense can be. But the Midshipmen defend the pass well enough to limit the deep shots that usually sink teams against the Mean Green. I expect Navy to score when they want, and late in the game control the clock when they need to as they wear North Texas down possession by possession. Big day coming for quarterback Blake Horvath. Lock it up, for Navy, for America.
East Carolina at Temple OVER 57.5 (1U): Temple stays on the Card, but this time we’re going with the over. Neither of these teams can defend the pass, and both love to air it out. In recent weeks, whenever either of them has faced a competent passing attack, they’ve surrendered 30-plus points. With two similarly built offenses trading punches, this one feels destined for fireworks. Points in Philly is the play.
#2 Indiana -21 at Maryland (2U): It shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point that Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers love running up the score on the Big Ten’s middle and lower tier. Indiana is the only team in the country ranked in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and it’s the defense that really sells me here on this wide spread. Maryland’s offense is a mess. I like what they have in true freshman quarterback Malik Washington, but there’s not much talent around him, and Mike Locksley has made a habit of getting blown out in November. The spread is big, but I’ll still take the Hoosiers and lay the points. Cig and the boys, fresh off dodging some injury scares last week, should roll again in conference play.
Boston College +30.5 vs. #12 Notre Dame (2U):I haven’t taken my Eagles all year, and I’ve been rewarded for it. Simply put, they have been one of the worst teams in America. It’s an odd feeling watching a miserable season like this. I’ve watched bad teams…I’ve been a part of bad teams. It sucks and the doom and gloom during the week leading up to a game can tend to become self-fulfilling on gameday. HOWEVAH something about this one game pulls me back in and tells me it’s time to get behind the lads (at +30.5).
Despite what their record is, BC keeps playing hard, and looked halfway decent at Louisville last week. This week I have a feeling they will get a spark from Dylan Lonergan (I think) taking over at quarterback. He’s a steadier passer for a group of receivers that has been one of the few bright spots this season. The defense, battered and bruised for most of the season, is finally getting a few key pieces back in the secondary, which might just help slow down a Notre Dame offense that can beat you every which way. Thirty points feels too high on a cold November afternoon in Alumni.
Now, let’s be real, BC isn’t winning this game. Cinderella isn’t showing up in Chestnut Hill. But belief has never been about odds. Some of my best memories as a fan are tied to this rivalry, the other “Holy War.” Celebrating wins over Notre Dame with my family and friends makes up some of my most core memories. There’s something deeply rooted here that doesn’t get enough attention nationally. These are the only two Catholic schools that play big time college football and both programs are steeped in a unique tradition that combines private, Catholic, academic values with a desire to win in football. Of course, one of these teams is a proud football behemoth giant from South Bend and the other is, admittedly, its scrappy little brother from the East, forever fighting to prove it belongs at the same table. As a fan of that scrappy upstart, this game is about pride, identity, and faith — the kind that doesn’t fade when the scoreboard turns ugly or run away when things get hard. The Eagles tomorrow will almost certainly lose, but they will fight. They will compete. And if there’s one Saturday this season where they rise above who they’ve been, it’s this one. I have the utmost confidence in BC and will always believe…especially when they start with a 30 point lead in Vegas.
Now, for the reader’s benefit, my five favorite BC wins over Notre Dame...
#5: 2008, 17-0 in Alumni: The last time BC beat ND was a truly dominant performance from the Eags and tied the series at 9-9. The Irish never got the ball into the BC red zone and never sniffed points. I was there and witnessed it live.
#4: 2004, 24-23 in South Bend: My dad and sister were at this game (my brother and I were at World Series back in Boston, NBD). The Eagles, down 20-7, rallied behind Paul Peterson (the first and only Mormon quarterback in BC history), who led an epic comeback win capped by Tony Gonzales game winner deep in the fourth quarter.
#3: 1999, 31-29 in South Bend: I attended this game with my dad and brother. Eight year old Mucc cried the entire fourth quarter because I thought we were going to lose. But with ND driving to win the game, a Pedro Cirino interception sealed it and BC fans took over ND stadium. I still have memories of walking down the concrete concourse joining in a chorus of Eagle fans chanting “OH AH EAGLES ON A WARPATH.”
#2: 1993, 41-39 in South Bend: You know the story. Tom Coughlin at the helm. Glenn Foley slinging the rock. David Gordon’s game winning kick. All resulting in a win over the #1 team in the land. My favorite nugget from this game: the previous week ND hosted and beat FSU in the “game of the century.” Before that game, the Notre Dame grotto was filled with over 500 candles lit in prayer that the Irish would beat the ‘Noles. A week later before the BC game, shown right before the final kick, there was only one candle left lit in the Grotto. We don’t know where that candle came from, but I like to think whoever lit it was an Eagle.
#1: 2002, 14-7 in South Bend: The 2002 Irish team was resurgent and undefeated ranked #4 in the country under new head coach Ty Willingham (of Stanford fame). In their infinite wisdom and exuberance, ND busted out their hallowed green jerseys for this one which had not been worn since the title teams of the 80s. BC took offense to that and promptly ruined the Irish celebration. The Eagles defense didn’t allow points until there were just five minutes left in the game. I will forever remember jumping up and down when Josh Ott had an incredible pick six to extend the lead. Out hit them, out played them and we’re subsequently blessed with this photo.
Go Eagles.
California +6 vs. #15 Virginia (1U): Virginia is maybe the worst 7-1 team in the country…or of all time. They keep winning games by the skin of their teeth, and as someone who locked them up last week I am more than ready to bet against them here. Cal has been pretty productive at home and has a saltier defense than the metrics suggest. Virginia won’t be able to physically dominate this game, and I think the fact that Cal can create explosive plays will play well against a Virginia defense that lacks in the team speed department. I’ll ride with the Bears in Berkely, I wouldn’t be shocked if they won this one.
#18 Oklahoma +3 at #14 Tennessee (1U): This is a playoff elimination game and because of that I think we will see some jitters on both sides. Despite how they looked for parts of the Ole Miss game, I still think this OU defense is one of the best units in the country and like I always say, defense travels. Tennessee is a kind of weird team that has flown somewhat under the radar. They are good offensively but quarterback Joey Aguilar has shown some cracks against good defenses (see the Bama tape) and their defense is simply not good. I think OU can score on this Volunteer defense and will have a better time against them than they did Ole Miss. I also think John Mateer has continued to improve since coming back from injury and we should continue to see a better version of this OU passing offense. Give me the Sooners here getting three…it’s not my highest confidence pick on the week, but I like it.
#17 Cincinnati +10.5 at #24 Utah (2U): This is probably the best and most important matchup of the day and will have real implications on the Big 12 race. I raved about Cincinnati earlier in the week and I’m sticking with them here. I know Utah has a great homefield advantage at night, but Cincy feels like an extremely balanced team offensively that could give Utah issues. Utah’s offense goes as quarterback Devon Dampier goes, and he is mainly good when he’s able to break contain and create with his legs. I like the matchup of Cincy’s talented and athletic defensive front versus Dampier’s legs and thing that the Bearcats will benefit from an athletic edge. I don’t know if they can win this game, but I certainly think they are good enough to cover this wide spread.
Hawaii +1.5 at San Jose State (1U): The advanced metrics seem to favor the Spartans in this one, but how many defenses has SJSU played that are as good as this Hawaii defense? Not many. I think the Rainbow Warriors are the most underrated team in the MWC and maybe all of the group of five. They will get after the QB and they will be able to move the ball on a Spartans defense that ranks 118th in pass defense. I’ll take Hawaii to cover and to get a 7th win to get me my season win total bet.
Film Room Brad Pick of the Week - Navy/North Texas OVER 66.5: This is the best QB matchup we’ve seen this season, Power Four included. This Navy offense generates a ton of explosive plays between QB #11 Blake Horvath and B-back #22 Eli Heidenreich. I’ve talked about this Navy offense a lot in my blogs - it’s a new-age triple option attack that schemes up explosive pass plays off of it. Navy’s defense has done enough to get them to 7-0, but they’re not an elite unit this year, and have given up 30 to FAU, Air Force, and Temple (shoutout to Evan Simon). North Texas and Qb #17 Drew Mestemaker have been one of the best offensive units all season. Mestemaker has played really clean ball outside of their game against USF, and I’m a huge fan of their physical freshman tailback #24 Caleb Hawkins. Similar to Navy, NT has played sufficient defense but their unit has been gashed a few times this season. Every time I watch Navy, Horvath and Heidenreich are generating explosives and I think they’re going to get their share in this game too. This game should be awesome and I’m curious how Mestemaker will play in his second big matchup this season after throwing 3 interceptions against USF. Huge American championship implications with Tulane losing on Thursday.
Notable Games not on The Card
#23 USC at Nebraska: This is another playoff elimination game as both of these teams still have slim chances to get in the field. I’m really interested to see how this Nebraska secondary holds up against the vaunted passing attack of USC. I think the Corn Huskers can move the ball a bit against a meek USC defense, but their inconsistency offensively does give me pause. Not betting this game because I could see it going a lot of different directions. Should be a fun watch.
#13 Texas Tech at Kansas State: This is a huge game for the Red Raiders in a tricky spot in Manhattan. The Wildcats, once left for dead this season, have been resurgent and their offense has looked extremely explosive. Tech should have the defensive front to rein in quarterback Avery Johnson, but the return of Joe Jackson at RB for the Wildcats has made their run game tough to stop. If Behren Morton looks good and healthy, I may try to layer on some live action on the Red Raiders because I do think they are the more talented team, but this is not a game I want to touch otherwise.
#5 Georgia vs. Florida: I am very interested to see what happens in this game. I know Georgia is having a solid season and looks like a playoff team, but there have been times this year where they’ve also looked pedestrian. Florida has a ton of talent and has given some good teams fits. It will be interesting to see if the firing of Billy Napier before their bye week has alleviated some anxiety and Florida just comes out firing, or if this team has quit. I have no idea what kind of Florida team shows up — but if they show up motivated and ready to play this could be a closer game than the experts think.
That’s all I got folks. A big card this week on a sleepy Saturday. What can I say? You gotta spend money to make money, and there’s no better time to spend than when you’re hotter than the Sicilian sun. Enjoy the football!
Love and Overs,
Mucc