As we enter Week 4, conference play has arrived in full force and its delivering some stupendous, albeit unusual matchups across the country. I’m going to breakdown 5 games I’m personally excited for + BC’s matchup with Michigan State. Here we go!
Friday
#24 Illinois at #22 Nebraska - 8pm FOX: Apologies to GBCF contributor Brad, but I won’t be spending time breaking down this Friday’s Stanford-’Cuse matchup. Instead, we have to turn our attention to a pivotal Big 10 matchup of two undefeated squads: Illinois and Nebraska. In my preseason predictions, I talked up Nebraska and talked down Illinois. I got some flack for my Illinois “hate” from the comment section, and rightfully so as the Illini have proven me wrong thus far. Illinois has outperformed my expectations with a nice win over Kansas coupled with two wins over lesser competition, while Nebraska, as I expected, has looked much improved since last season but has yet to play anyone of merit (no, Colorado is not a quality win).
On paper, these two teams look and feel pretty similar. Both teams are stingy defensively and on offense skew towards the run game to control the game and clock. I know Illinois fans are going to hate this, but I think Nebraska has a significant edge in this one. Nebraska’s defensive front is going to be unlike anything Illinois has faced thus far and they have the ability to absolutely dominate the LOS. I think this will force the Illini to deviate from their preferred offensive style and throw the ball more than they would like. Illinois does have some weapons at receiver in Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin, but if they get one-dimensional this Nebraska d-line may be able to create some havoc and pressure that will force QB Luke Altmyer to so more than he is capable of.
On the flipside, I think Nebraska has a really nice balance on offense to combat what has been a solid Illinois defense thus far. Nebraska is averaging 4.5 yards per rush and has three backs that can all carry the rock effectively, while Illinois is giving up 5.0 yards per rush. I expect Nebraska will be able to run the ball effectively and create some opportunities for their freshman phenom QB Dylan Raiola to make some plays in the passing game. Ultimately, Illinois’ big win over Kansas was really predicated on forcing turnovers, which I don’t view as entirely repeatable. It will help Nebraska that this game is at home and I think they will ultimately vanquish the Illini.
Saturday
#11 USC at #18 Michigan - 3:30pm CBS: Welcome to the Big 10, Trojans. For your first conference matchup you get a trip to Ann Arbor and the Big House. Lucky for the Trojans, the come into this game with way better vibes than the defending champs and might just be the better overall team. Seriously, could things be going any worse for Michigan right now? They followed up their shellacking at the hands of Texas with a lackluster performance against Arkansas State last week. In that game QB Davis Warren threw 3 INTs and this week it was announced that Michigan is moving forward with run-first QB Alex Orji as the starter. It’s never good if you are making a QB change 3 games in folks. However, I think the move to Orji is the right one for the Wolverines. Michigan doesn’t have any dynamic pass catchers and their o-line is way better moving forwards than in pass protection, so, I think moving to Orji and letting him and RBs Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings run a modified power-run offense is the right move.
Even with the change though, USC looks like a tough matchup for the Wolverines. USC’s offense and defense are humming at a level we haven’t seen under Lincoln Riley. I’ve been most impressed by the Trojans on the defensive side of the ball where they have appeared to figure out how to play fast and actually hit people (a big change from last year). Overall, I think USC’s offense is good enough to put up points against Michigan and I think their defense is strong enough to hold this dysfunctional Wolverine offense in check. There is one caveat here: Michigan’s defense does have game winning ability. If the Wolverines can force some turnovers and keep USC out of the endzone, Orji and co. may have enough in the run game to get the Wolverines a much needed win. It will be interesting to see if that will happen - but my money is on the Trojans. Let’s not forget, the Trojans have a very underrated QB in Miller Moss and dynamic skill position players who can cause problems in both the run and pass game. I think the key matchup will be at the LOS (as it usually is) where USC’s o-line will be truly tested. They seemed to hold up well against a decent LSU front earlier in the year, but Michigan is a whole different animal. Given Michigan’s offensive limitations, this feels like the type of game where if USC gets up a score or two early it is likely over.
#12 Utah at #14 Oklahoma State - 4pm FOX: BIG GAME ALERT! While USC/Michigan is a fun one, I think this is the game of the day in terms of CFP and conference title relevancy. Utah and Ok State are two of the three best teams in the Big 12 in my opinion (shoutout Kansas State) so the winner of this game has a huge leg up in the chase for the Big 12 title and ultimately securing a playoff berth. Plus, where else can you watch TWO 7th year quarterbacks battle it out?
As it relates to the full matchup, we have two contrasting styles at work here. Oklahoma State plays virtually no defense and they throw the ball 60% of the time. Utah plays incredible defense, giving up only 4.5 yards per play, and they have a methodical offense that runs the ball 57% of the time. Who will win out? The data says that usually the defensive team wins this matchup. I think we have to factor in the fact that Oklahoma State is at home though. Stillwater is a notoriously hard place to play and they will have the home crowd advantage against a team that typically struggles to move the ball. This could help Oklahoma State dictate tempo early in the game and allow for them to get up on Utah. We know enough about Utah to know that they aren’t a great comeback team. Yes, Utah QB Cam Rising is back this week from injury, but is there anyone else on that offense that scares you? I think Utah lacks big-play potential, while OSU has it in spades - the Cowboys have three solid receivers, a QB playing lights out football, and an all-American running back in Ollie Gordon who hasn’t even gotten going yet. I know I’m sounding like I’m all in the Pokes here, but I think it’s crazy to say anything other than this will be a tight game. I’m looking forward to it immensely.
#6 Tennessee at #15 Oklahoma - 7:30pm ABC: Josh Heupel bowl incoming! The Vol’s head coach returns to his alma mater and hopes to disappoint the OU faithful by kicking the crap out of the Sooners in their first SEC game.
Let’s get this out of the way: Tennessee is a wagon and Oklahoma doesn’t deserve to be in the Top 25.
Tennessee comes into Norman rated near the top of every efficiency category on both offense and defense in the country. You could realistically make an argument that no one is playing better football than the Vols right now. I know, I know, they haven’t played much competition, but neither has OU and they’ve looked terrible thus far, at least on the scoreboard.
In terms of matchups to watch, Tennessee’s defensive line is incredibly strong and they’ve proven tough to block. OU has a bit of a patchwork situation going on with their o-line, so the battle up front when the Sooners have the ball will be a deciding factor without a doubt. On the flipside, this Vols offense is elite. Star QB in Nico Iamaleva is going to be tough to corral and the Vol’s offensive line is adept at opening holes for RB Dylan Sampson who is averaging an astounding 8 yards per rush. OU does benefit from a strong defense in their own right, but they’ve given up some points this year to teams that aren’t even in Tennessee’s galaxy. I don’t know fam, I don’t see this one being close at all.
Late Night Treat
#13 Kansas State at BYU - 10:30pm ESPN: I threw this game in here because we all need some after-dark content to look forward to. Both these teams are undefeated (nice work Cougs!), but it’s a pretty lopsided matchup on paper. Kansas State has a pretty physical attack on both sides of the ball with a stellar defense and an offense that is equally as tough. On offense in particular, they run a veer-and-shoot style dual-threat game with Avery Johnson at QB that gave Arizona fits last week because of how versatile the scheme is. What makes the Wildcats so hard to stop is that they have these mauling tight ends they use to annihilate you in the run game and run up the seam and catch passes. Just watching their tape, their personnel are so big it feels like you need to key on the run game and then bam, next thing you know there’s a 260 lb white-corn-fed dude, number 87, catching a deep pass for a touchdown. Anyway, Kansas State is good.
Despite my fawning over KSU, I think BYU actually matches up fairly well in this game and that’s largely because of their defense. The Cougs have some ballers on that side of the ball and are holding teams to a crazy-low 3.4 yards per play. BYU relies on its linebacking core a lot and winning the matchup with KSU’s tight ends and RBs will be paramount to whether they can hang around or not. My worry for BYU is that their offense lacks explosion or efficiency to score enough points in this one. Granted, one operative stat is 13.6 - that’s the yards per completion Kansas State is giving up, telling me that if you can hit passes against the Wildcats you can hit some big ones. Will Cougs QB Jake Retzlaf find the hutzpah to make it happen for BYU? Tune in late night to find out.
BC Breakdown
Michigan State at Boston College - 8pm ACC Network: Sold out Saturday night in Chestnut Thrill, who’s got it better than us?
Now, I could sit here and get into the nitty gritty of this matchup. I could say how on paper these teams are a dead even matchup. I could say that the BC’s o-line vs. the Spartan d-front will decide the game as Michigan State is only giving up 2.8 yards per rush and BC runs the ball 60% of the time at 4.2 yards per rush. I could tell you that BC has the edge because Michigan State hasn’t played anybody and the Eagles are, in contrast, battle tested. I could quietly mention that BC really needs to defend the run better than they have because Michigan State is currently averaging 4.6 yards per rush and has an underrated offensive line. I could even tell you that in all likelihood this game will be so tight that the team who wins the turnover battle will in fact win the game.
But none of that matters, so I won’t say it.
There are only two words I need to say to break this game down: Red Bandana
“In those awful moments after the South Tower was hit, some of the injured huddled in the wreckage of the 78th floor. The fires were spreading. The air was filled with smoke. It was dark, and they could barely see. It seemed as if there was no way out.
And then there came a voice -- clear, calm, saying he had found the stairs. A young man in his 20s, strong, emerged from the smoke, and over his nose and his mouth he wore a red handkerchief.
He called for fire extinguishers to fight back the flames. He tended to the wounded. He led those survivors down the stairs to safety, and carried a woman on his shoulders down 17 flights. Then he went back. Back up all those flights. Then back down again, bringing more wounded to safety. Until that moment when the tower fell.
They didn’t know his name. They didn’t know where he came from. But they knew their lives had been saved by the man in the red bandana.”
Final Analysis: Pray for the Spartans.
Love and Overs,
Mucc
For Welles
For Welles