Week Eleven Card & Preview

Red Bandana, Red Raiders vs Cougars, and the Temple Owls have us swooning...again

I’m not going to lie to you, gang, I kind of hate the board this Saturday. I’ve been staring at it all week and just can’t get a clean read on what I actually want to play versus what I should just leave alone. As late-season slates go, this one’s a bit of a snoozer. Outside of Texas Tech–BYU, there isn’t really a marquee matchup.

That said, I did mention earlier in the year that it’s these “quiet” weekends that tend to sneak up on us. When everyone relaxes, this sport gets weird. So stay ready and stay watching because tomorrow might deliver the kind of chaos that reshuffles everything.

As for me, I’ll be at the Red Bandana Game at BC. Some of you may be asking, “Why in the world is this man going out of his way to watch a 1–8 football team?” To that I say: if you weren’t with us at 1–8, how can you be with us at 8–1? I’ll never quit on the Eags.

And I’ll be damned if I ever miss a Red Bandana Game. Tomorrow, as they do annually, BC honors Welles Crowther, the Man in the Red Bandana, the young alumni who is responsible for saving nearly 20 people on 9/11. A BC Eagle. A son. A brother. A man who was thrown into danger, and chose courage, sacrifice, and love.

BC’s motto is “men and women for others.” Welles didn’t just embody it, he lived it. “Greater love has no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends.”

So yeah, I’ll be in my seat. As I always will be.

Go Eags. Enjoy the football.

Here’s the preview.

Week Eleven Card

#2 Indiana at Penn State OVER 49.5 (1U): This is an interesting spot for the Hoosiers. They are coming in as more than two touchdown favorites against a downtrodden Nittany Lions crew, but they also are entering their second straight road game and have some nagging injuries on both sides of the ball. I think that somewhat favors Penn State to keep this game close, but I don’t love the idea of betting against Coach Cig in the boys who LOVE to cover a spread. Instead, I’ll take a bit of a correlated play, the over. The IU offense will still hum against what looks like a Penn State defense that is on quit watch. I think the Penn State offense, who can still run the football effectively, will have a bit of success against IU and their banged up front seven. I like the over here — if IU does come out and enter “get on your ass” mode as they are want to do, they could get the over by themselves.

Temple +7 at Army (2U): The Owls remain a favorite here at GBCF. They are 6-3 ATS overall this season and 3-1 when underdogs by more than 6.5 points. They are getting a full touchdown at Michie Stadium tomorrow and I love it. Army’s defense has been porous all season and they’ve benefitted from some turnover luck and some red zone stops. I think Temple has a strong enough passing attack to challenge the Black Knights vertically and will score enough points here. Now, how will the Owls handle this option attack? Well we have the evidence that they should be able to handle it alright given their performance against Navy earlier this year. Army is a lot less talented at the QB position than Navy and doesn’t have the same passing attack — give me the Owls getting a touchdown.

Maryland +2.5 at Rutgers (2U): This is about as gross as it gets with two power conference teams but I’m riding with the Terps. I actually think this Maryland defense can hang. I don’t put too much stock into what occurred last week, IU will do that to teams. Maryland has been competitive with a lot of second tier Big 10 teams this season and I think they have superior athletes to Rutgers. Rutgers on the other hand has a truly terrible defense that might just be the ingredient to get this Maryland offense going. I’m pretty comfortable taking the points here in a game where I think the wrong team is favored. Plus, my wife said this is here vibes pick of the week so she deserves a re-do after Texas imploded for her last week. Go Turtles!

UConn +8 vs. Duke (1U): This is strictly a system play. Duke has legitimately no reason to give maximum effort in this game. The only way they can make the ACC title game and make the playoff is to win out in conference games. This random, out-of-conference trip to East Hartford does not matter for them at all. UConn on the other hand is going to be jacked up for an ACC opponent at home as they search to improve their bowl prospects. I don’t know if UConn will win this game, but those facts alone make me feel like getting an eight point lead to start the game is good value. Also, look for this UConn offense to move the ball. Duke’s defense is bad and in a game that doesn’t matter they may not be as willing to meet UConn’s physicality.

Mucc’s Lock of the Week - #9 Oregon at Iowa OVER 41.5 (3U): Everyone is afraid of this number because the weather in Iowa City calls for rain and possible snow. I don’t buy it. Both of these teams can run the ball extremely well, enough so that they can hit some explosive runs to keep the momentum of a higher scoring game going even in these conditions. Iowa, the king of unders, has looked much more balanced in the last few weeks and I think Oregon will want to make a statement after their lackluster effort against Wisconsin. Give me the over here — let’s attack this low number.

Syracuse at #18 Miami OVER 46.5 (2U): This was my other contender for lock of the week. I expect a sleepy atmosphere in Miami Gardens after the Hurricanes blew it last week against SMU. I also expect Syracuse to come out with some tricks up their sleeve after they reshuffled the entire offensive staff this week. I could see Syracuse hanging around and making this enough of a game in the first half that Miami needs to hit an extra gear to escape. To me, that kind of game flow should lead to an over on a low number. Let’s attack another one.

Washington -10.5 at Wisconsin (2U): Wisconsin announced this week that they are retaining Luke Fickell and planning a major investment in the football program. That’s great. It won’t help tomorrow. Washington has life and will absolutely roll over this Badgers team that is now playing as poorly on defense as they have been on offense. Lay the points and roll Dawgs. Shoutout to loyal subscriber and Dawg, Brady, who welcomed his first child this week — no chance she sees anything but a huge win in her first week.

Navy +27.5 at #10 Notre Dame (1U): I couldn’t spend all week talking junk about ND and not take Navy here. A 27.5 point lead in a game that should see a whole lot of ground game? Sign me up!

#4 Alabama -10.5 vs LSU (2U): I know this is a large number in this rivalry game, but with both teams coming off a bye week I like the Tide to roll. LSU spent their bye week figuring out who was going to coach this game — and there is all kinds of drama and negativity in that program right now. That’s before you factor in that their offense is still super one dimensional and getting worse. Alabama has dominated games when they can get stops, and I think they will easily get stops in this one. I expect a big day from the Tide.

San Diego State -6.5 at Hawaii (1U): I was not impressed with Hawaii against SJSU when I bet on them a few weeks back. This defense is not as good as I thought and San Diego State has been smothering teams. With the Aztecs needing to win, and win convincingly, to make their case for a playoff spot I think they will come to play on the Island. I also think Hawaii will have it damn near impossible to score against this Aztec defense. We could see a 24-10 type game. Lay the points.

Film Room Brad Pick of the Week - Temple +7 at Army: This spread seems pretty big for a shaky Army team to cover. I’ve made my thoughts clear on Temple - despite having a bad pass defense, I’ve appreciated the speed and aggression they show in the defensive trenches, which I think matches up well with this Army option attack. Temple can clinch their first bowl appearance since 2019 on Saturday - I was gonna go ML but I’m gonna play it safe.

Notable Games Not on The Card

#7 BYU at #8 Texas Tech: Out of respect for my BYU subscribers, I am once again abstaining from this game. This, however, is the game of the weekend and both teams are really freaking good. The biggest question is, can BYU block this Texas Tech front? David Bailey is an elite DL, but the Red Raiders also have a plethora of other guys on the line and at linebacker that can cause problems in the run game and the pass rush. It’s no surprise to see this line at 10-11 points because BYU hasn’t done a great job handling really athletic fronts this season.

That being said, the Cougars are undefeated. They do have a knack for finding ways to win football games. They’ll need to go Bear Bachmeir and LJ Martin going in the run game to open up some shot throws, if they can do that and establish their tempo they can get the Red Raiders on their heels. Texas Tech does have some offensive fire power but it’s been inconsistent as Behren Morton has come in and out of games with injuries. He looked healthy last week, but I don’t know what will happen against an equally good BYU offensive line. My lean is that Texas Tech wins the game by less than the spread, but I’m staying away. It should be a fun watch and, like I said in my earlier blog this week, this is likely a preview of the Big 12 title game.

#3 Texas A&M at #19 Missouri: I was all set to bet the Aggies in this game but with Missouri QB Beau Pribula out this line has ballooned to seven. I then thought about taking Mizzou, but I just don’t know what backup Matt Zollers will play like — he looked good last week, but it’s hard to gauge how he will do against the Aggies speed and strength. I think Texas A&M will stack the box and force Zollers to throw and we don’t have any good data on whether he can do that.

As for the Aggies, they shouldn’t have problems moving the ball against this Mizzou defense. They just need to be patient and not get lured into too many deep shots. I think they will work the run game earlier and the screen game which has been so good to them this year. My lean is this is a close game because Mizzou seemingly always plays well at home and up to competition, but I don’t believe in that enough to bet it.

BC vs. SMU: Like I said, this is the Red Bandana game. BC will play with great effort, spirit, and resolve. The problem is, SMU is good and should be able to move the ball at will on this BC defense which is looking better but still undermanned and relatively untalented. I want so badly to take the Eags, but I have too much respect for Welles to make a passion bet here without full conviction. Maybe me staying away means they will get the dub…if that’s the price I pay, so be it.

There we go folks, another big card on a board I said I didn’t love…what could go wrong?

Love and Overs,

Mucc

Week 11 Card

Friday

• UCF vs. Houston +1.5

• Memphis -3.5 vs. Tulane

• Northwestern at USC Under 52

Saturday

• #2 Indiana at Penn State – OVER 49.5 (1U)

• Temple +7 at Army (2U)

• Maryland +2.5 at Rutgers (2U)

• UConn +8 vs. Duke (1U)

• #9 Oregon at Iowa – OVER 41.5 (3U) — Mucc’s Lock of the Week

• Syracuse at #18 Miami – OVER 46.5 (2U)

• Washington -10.5 at Wisconsin (2U)

• Navy +27.5 at #10 Notre Dame (1U)

• #4 Alabama -10.5 vs. LSU (2U)

• San Diego State -6.5 at Hawaii (1U)